The socio-economic impacts of climate variability on agricultural livelihoods: Perspectives from the past and present of agricultural communities

Abstract

This study examines the impacts of climate variability on agricultural livelihoods in Rambewa, Anuradhapura District, Sri Lanka, where paddies, cereals, vegetables, and fruits form a critical economic base. A mixed-methods design integrated climatic data analysis with a questionnaire survey of 100 farmers and 15 in-depth interviews conducted from March to July 2023. Quantitative data were analysed using the Kruskal–Wallis H and Mann–Whitney U tests, with Holt’s Relative Importance Index applied to rank perceived impacts. Annual Rainfall Anomaly Index calculations revealed pronounced inter-annual variability, with negative anomalies corresponding to drought years and positive anomalies to flood events. Qualitative insights, including oral histories, were thematically analysed using Braun and Clarke’s framework. Farmers’ recognition of climate shifts was primarily experiential, with impacts differing by farming type. The findings highlight the importance of integrating indigenous ecological knowledge with climate-smart practices to strengthen agricultural extension services, improve water management, and enhance resilience to future climatic uncertainties.