Spatio-temporal characteristics and the epidemiology of tuberculosis in Sri Lanka from 2021 to 2023

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a critical global health challenge, affecting a substantial portion of the population worldwide. Despite efforts to control it, TB persists as a leading cause of mortality among infectious diseases, with significant burdens especially in developing countries. Sri Lanka, historically with a low TB prevalence, faces persistent challenges despite improvements in public health infrastructure. This study aims to explore the spatial-temporal characteristics and epidemiology of TB in Sri Lanka from 2021 to 2023, employing time series analysis and spatial mapping techniques. TB incidence data spanning three years were collected from Sri Lanka's Epidemiology Unit. Statistical analyses included ANOVA to assess temporal variations and choropleth mapping in ArcGIS to visualize spatial patterns. Time series analysis was conducted to forecast future trends in TB incidence across nine provinces. ANOVA revealed significant temporal and provincial differences in TB cases (F = 42.92, p < 0.05), highlighting varying burdens across Sri Lanka. Choropleth maps identified clusters in the Central and Western provinces, consistently reporting higher incidence rates. Time series analysis indicated a positive trend in TB cases for all provinces, influenced by factors such as rapid urbanization and environmental conditions. The study underscores the increasing trend of TB in Sri Lanka from 2021 to 2023, with notable geographic clusters and future projections suggesting continued challenges. Addressing TB effectively requires comprehensive understanding and integration of socioeconomic, climatic, and demographic factors into future research and policy frameworks. Enhanced surveillance and proactive interventions are crucial to mitigate TB's impact and improve public health outcomes in Sri Lanka.