Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://archive.cmb.ac.lk:8080/xmlui/handle/70130/3245
Full metadata record
DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorSonnadara, D.U.J.
dc.contributor.authorPerera, H.K.W.I.
dc.date.accessioned2012-12-19T04:38:33Z
dc.date.available2012-12-19T04:38:33Z
dc.date.issued2000
dc.identifier.citationProceedings of the Technical Sessions, Institute of Physics Sri Lanka, 16 (2000) 42-49
dc.identifier.urihttp://archive.cmb.ac.lk:8080/xmlui/handle/70130/3245-
dc.description.abstractPossibility of using statistical methods for long-term and short-term rainfall forecasting was investigated. Daily rainfall data from 8 meteorology stations namely, Colombo, Ratnapura, Kandy, Galle, Hambanthota, Batticoloa, Anuradhapura and Trincomalee were utilised in this study. A time series model was used for long-term forecasting and a Markov Chain model was used for short-term forecasting. The preliminary results show that the time series model with exponential smoothing fitted the data best and seasonal variations can be predicted with this model from weekly and monthly averages. The Markov chain model, applied by considering only two states, wet or dry, was successful to the level of 70% in predicting the status of a given day.
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.titlePreliminary Results of Long-Term and Short-Term Rainfall Forecastingen_US
dc.typeResearch paperen_US
Appears in Collections:Department of Physics

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
2000 Paper02.pdf128.4 kBAdobe PDFView/Open


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.